The ¡®globalisation¡¯ of protectionist sentiment and policy could impact world economic growth and freight transport demand this year, according to one leading analyst.

Echoing the World Trade Organisation¡¯s call for nations to resist the urge to respond to national populism with protectionist trade policies, Peter Sand, chief shipping analyst at trade association Bimco, said ¡°inward-looking¡± policies were counter-productive.

¡°As we enter 2017, Bimco stresses the impact of a possible backlash against globalisation,¡± he said. ¡°If the growth and embracing of protectionist policies throughout 2016 becomes a reality, it may pose a huge threat to the shipping industry and could disrupt trade flows and limit economic growth.

¡°For advanced economies to avoid weaker overall growth and stagnation, it is important that world leaders focus on generating economic growth that spurs international trading - avoiding ¡®the globalisation of nationalism¡¯.¡±

Analysis by Bimco found that over the last five years, IMF forecasts for world GDP growth had proven consistently over-optimistic, prompting multiple downward revisions. IMF Predictions that global economic growth will accelerate this year therefore should be treated sceptically.

¡°It will not be a surprise if we see another downward revision of GDP growth in 2017, if IMF forecasts in recent years are anything to go by,¡± said Sand. ¡°Currently IMF estimates global GDP growth in 2017 at 3.4%.¡±

The turn towards protectionism in some parts of the world could be a factor in slower-than-expected growth this year, which would also impact shipping and logistics demand, according to Sand.

¡°With the UK referendum and the newly elected president in the United States, there is an increasing scepticism towards the benefits of cross-border economic integration lurking in public opinion,¡± he said. ¡°This is stimulated by concerns over the impact of international competition, sparked by weak growth in advanced economies.

¡°However, as trade restrictive measures can discourage trade flow and have knock on effects on economic growth and job creation, supporting protectionist policies will do more damage than good in the long run.¡±

In the US, Bimco said populist policy-making could hurt global trade, but investments in infrastructure could boost logistics demand. However, if Federal investments were linked to domestic sourcing protocols, this would not aid the shipping industry.

¡°The protectionist measures avowed by Donald Trump may become a huge issue for the shipping industry across all segments, as they could affect demand and represent a significant backlash against globalisation,¡± said Sand.

In Europe, he argued it was important for policy makers to focus on job creation and boosting economic activity and foreign trade. ¡°When dealing with Brexit, the European Union must focus on decreasing the economic, political, and institutional uncertainty and the likely reduction in trade between the EU and the UK,¡± he said.

But, he added, ¡°the outlook looks somewhat bleak for key European nations and the EU¡±, while ¡°anti-integration and inward-looking policy platforms gained traction during 2016 and may fuel further political discontent¡±.

If European nations and the US step back from global political and trade policy leadership ¨C a process that most analysts believe has already begun with President Trump¡¯s withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) ¨C Sand said China was likely to step into the vacuum.

¡°In the shadow of the US election, China has fast-forwarded their One-Belt, One-Road (OBOR) initiative,¡± he said. ¡°With a minimum spend of USD$1.4 trillion over 35 years on infrastructural investments, OBOR will generate global growth and envisages a comprehensive infrastructural network.

¡°This will also encourage the development of new markets in central Asia ¨C for Chinese goods that is!¡±