Maritime Strategies International expects the current positive momentum in the liner shipping industry to be sustained in the coming months, with the most upbeat outlook for trades involving the US.

¡°Each of the industry's drivers ¨C demand, supply and earnings ¨C have started the year in healthy shape and MSI expects the sector to move into the next quarter with a reinforcement of this encouraging trend,¡± the consultancy said in a report on Tuesday.

It forecasts 2%-3% growth year on year in transpacific headhaul over each of the remaining three quarters and about 3% in the transatlantic, given no major shock or policy error in the region.

Growth in Asia-Europe trades is expected to reach 2%, provided that eurozone expansion stays on track and a political shock in France does not occur.

On the supply side, January¡¯s high scrapping volume, coupled with minimal vessel deliveries and restrained ordering, have provided much relief to the industry.

¡°If scrapping continues at its current pace ¨C in line with the MSI Base Case forecast ¨C this will go some way toward reducing oversupply,¡± MSI said.

It forecasts freight rates will remain at strong levels into the second quarter because carriers are expected to continue restricting capacity.

Time charter rates for post-panamax and panamax vessels could reach $9,000 per day and $6,000 per day respectively in the third quarter.

Nevertheless, there are still important caveats despite the sector¡¯s apparent recovery, said MSI senior analyst James Frew.

¡°In terms of demand, dependable year-on-year growth of between 2%-4% on the Asia-Europe and transpacific trades would be welcome, but realistically constitutes the absolute minimum needed to absorb continued overcapacity.¡±

¡°In terms of supply, deliveries of ultra large vessels are soon set to increase, and we expect the fleet as a whole [will] resume growth from [the second quarter] onwards,¡± said Mr Frew.